RBI released the foreign trade data for the month of April 2020 in a press release dated 15 May 2020. As per the available data, India encountered a negative growth of (-)36.65% comparing to the same period of the previous year. The overall exports (Merchandise and services combined) are estimated to be $27.96B and if we look on the other side of the coin, the overall imports in April 2020 are estimated to show a negative growth of (-)47.36% to reach an estimate of $27.80B.
Reasons for the steep decline:
- Ongoing global slowdown
- COVID-19 outburst and stand-still economic and commercial activities
- Disruption in supply chain and demand resulting to order cancellation
I. MERCHANDISE TRADE
(A) EXPORTS (including re-exports)
Exports of April 2020 were $10.36B (in rupee term Rs. 78,951.41 cr.). As compared to the previous years export of $26.07B (in rupee term Rs. 1,81,021.34 cr.) registered a negative growth of (-)60.28%.
Except for Iron Ore and Drugs & Pharmaceuticals which registered a growth of 17.53% and 0.25% respectively, all another commodity/commodity groups have registered negative growth in April 2020.
Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in April 2020 were $9.08B, as compared to $19.54B in April 2019, exhibiting a negative growth of (-)53.54%.
(B) IMPORTS
Imports in April 2020 were $17.12B (in rupee term Rs.1,30,525.08cr.), which was 58.65% lower in Dollar terms and 54.59% lower in Rupee terms over imports of $41.40B (in rupee term Rs. 2,87,432.93 cr.) in April 2019.
(C) CRUDE OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS
Oil imports in April 2020 were $4.66B (in rupee term Rs. 35,537.22 cr.) which was 59.03% lower in Dollar terms (55.01% lower in Rupee terms), compared to $11.38B (in rupee term Rs. 78,989.46cr.) in April 2019.
Non-oil imports in April 2020 were estimated at $12.46B (in rupee term Rs. 94,987.86 cr.) which was 58.50% lower in Dollar terms (54.43percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to $30.02B (in rupee term Rs. 2,08,443.47 cr.) in April 2019.
Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports were $12.46B in April 2020, recording a negative growth of (-)52.18 percent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports of $ 26.05B in April 2019.
II. TRADE IN SERVICES
(A) EXPORTS (Receipts)
As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15th May 2020, exports in March 2020 were $18.16 B (Rs. 1,35,043.18cr.) registering a positive growth of 1.22% in dollar terms as compared to March 2019. The estimated value of services export for April 2020 is $17.60B.
(B) IMPORTS (Payments)
As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15th May 2020, imports in March 2020 were $11.11B (in rupee term Rs. 82,618.50 cr.) registering a negative growth of (-)2.23% in dollar terms as compared to March 2019. The estimated value of service import for April 2020 is $10.68B.
III. TRADE BALANCE
(A) MERCHANDISE
As per the latest data the trade deficit for April 2020 was estimated at $6.76B against the trade deficit of $15.33B in April 2019.
(B) SERVICES
As per RBI’s Press Release dated 15th May 2020, the trade balance in Services (i.e. Net Services export) for March 2020 is estimated at $7.05B.
(C) OVERALL TRADE BALANCE
Taking merchandise and services together, the overall trade surplus for April 2020 is estimated at $0.16B as compared to the deficit of $8.67B in April 2019.
Note: The latest data for the services sector released by RBI is for March 2020. The data for April 2020 is an estimation, which will be revised based on RBI’s subsequent release.
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